Ngā Auahatanga Matua o te Ahumahi (2025-2026)
Kei te pāngia te rāngai taputapu hiko me te mana o te ao e tētahi panonitanga hanganga e arahina ana e te whakamahinga o te pūngao hou, te pikinga o te tono hiko me te whakahoutanga o te whatunga hiko. E tautokona ana e ngā raraunga whai mana, kei raro nei ngā ia o ngā mahi ka taea te mahi, e ahu mai ana i ngā meka, e hanga hou ana i te mākete.
1. Ka hipa ake ngā Pūngao Whakahou i te Waro hei Pūtake Hiko Matua i te tau 2026
E ai ki te pūrongo Hiko 2026 a te IEA, ka nui ake te kaha o ngā rauemi whakahou i te waro hei puna hiko nui rawa atu o te ao i te tau 2026—ka mutu te mana o te waro kua tata ki te 100 tau te roa. Ko te PV rā me te hau ka eke ki te 20% o te whakaputa hiko o te ao i te tau 2026 (mai i te 15% i te tau 2024), ā, ka tere ake te tere o te PV rā i te hau, te karihi me te wai i ngā tau e haere ake nei. Kei te piki ake te hiahia mō ngā inverters PV, ngā transformers, ngā taputapu ngaohiko teitei me ngā taputapu tohatoha.
2. Ko te tipu tere o te tono hiko ka whakawhāiti i te tuku waahanga
Ka piki te hiahia hiko o te ao mā te 3.3% (2025) me te 3.7% (2026), he rua te tere o te tipu hiko whānui, nā te hiko ā-umanga (60% mai i Āhia), te whānui o te pokapū raraunga/AI me te whakamahi i ngā waka hiko hiko. Nā te pikinga o te pikinga, kua iti te tuku hiko mō ngā wāhanga nui: ngā whakawhiti hiko, ngā taputapu whakawhiti hiko, ngā kaiwawao hiko me ngā taura, ā, ka akiaki i ngā kaihanga ki te whakanui ake i te whakaputanga.
3. Te Hinga o ngā Utu Rokiroki Pūhiko, te Whakarei Ake i te Hiahia mō te Ngāwari o te Whatunga
E whakaatu ana ngā raraunga a BloombergNEF i te hekenga o ngā utu rokiroki pākahiko e whā hāora mā te 27% i te tau ki te $78/MWh i te tau 2025 (he iti rawa tēnei rekoata), ā, i piki ake te kaha rokiroki pūngao rā o te ao mā te 87GW i te tau kua hipa. Ko te hekenga o ngā utu kei te akiaki i te tono mō ngā mana whakahaere whatunga atamai, ngā pūnaha whakahaere pākahiko (BMS) me ngā taputapu pumau hei tautoko i te whakaputanga hiko hou.
4. Ko ngā Kaihoko Āhia te Arataki i te Tipu o te Mekameka Tuku o te Ao
E whakaatu ana ngā raraunga tikanga o te tīmatanga o te tau 2026 i te kaha o ngā kaweake taputapu hiko mai i Āhia: i piki ake ngā kaweake taputapu whatunga hiko o Haina i te 32.7% i te tau (Hanuere-Pēpuere), me te pikinga o ngā taputapu tuku hiko UHV me te DC ngāwari i te 81.5%. Kei te kaha tonu te tono o te ao mō ngā wāhanga ngaohiko iti me ngā whakawhiti tohatoha puta noa i te Middle East, Amerika Te Raki me Ūropi, me ngā hau ārai ngawari mai i ngā utu rauemi mata me ngā utu kawe.
5. Tirohanga Mō Te Wā Roa: Mā te Pūtea Ipurangi ka Whakakaha i te Tipu Pūmau
E matapaetia ana e te IEA ka eke te iti o te tukunga hiko ki te 50% o te whakaputanga hiko o te ao i te tau 2030 (mai i te 42% i te tau 2025), ā, me nui te haumi ki te whatunga hiko me te rokiroki. Ka puta te hiahia tonu mō ngā taputapu hiko whai hua, whai ture hoki puta noa i ngā rāngai noho, arumoni me te ahumahi.
He Kōrero Matua: Kua rite te rāngai taputapu hiko mō te tipu pumau i te tau 2026, nā te whakawhiti ki te ao whakahou me ngā whakahoutanga whatunga hiko. Ko ngā kaiwhakarato e aro ana ki ngā otinga tino whai hua, atamai me te pumau ka hopu i te nuinga o ngā whai wāhitanga mākete.
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Heoi anō, i ahu mai ngā raraunga katoa i te Pūrongo Hiko 2026 a te IEA me ngā raraunga hokohoko tikanga ā-ao.
Wā tuku: Maehe-17-2026
