I te mea ka uru te umanga taputapu hiko me te mana o te ao ki te tau tino nui o2026, kei te hohonu haere tonu te panonitanga hanganga e akiakihia ana e te whakawhiti pūngao hou me te whakahoutanga o te whatunga hiko. Ahakoa kei te harikoa te rāngai i te tere tipu e whakakahangia ana e te tango pūngao ma me te pikinga o te tono hiko, kei te anga atu hoki ki ngā wero e piki haere ana mai i ngā here o te mekameka tuku, ngā huringa ture me te whakahoutanga hangarau. Ma te whakamahi i ngā raraunga hou mai i te Pūrongo Hiko IEA 2026, ngā tatauranga hokohoko tikanga ā-ao me te rangahau ahumahi, ka rukuhia e tēnei tuhinga ngā hihiri hou,ngā wero matua me ngā huarahi ā muri ake neite hanga i te ahumahi i te tau 2026.
1. Ka Whakakotahitia te Mana Whakahou, ka Piki ake i te Hiahia mō ngā Whakapaipai Taputapu Utu-teitei
Ko te tau 2026 te wā hurihanga hītori mō te ranunga hiko o te ao: kua hipa kē te waro i te pūtake hiko nui rawa atu o te ao, ā, kua mutu te mana o te waro mō te tata ki te rau tau e ai ki te matapae a te IEA. Ko te hiko pūngao rā me te hiko hau e tata ana ki te 20% o te whakaputa hiko o te ao, ā, ko te hiko pūngao rā te wāhanga tino tere tipu—ko tana whakaputanga ā-tau i eke ki te 620 TWh i te tau 2025, he pikinga nui mai i te 450 TWh i te tau 2024, ā, e matapaetia ana ka hipa ake i te hau, te karihi me te wai i roto i ngā wā tata nei. Kāore tēnei whānui tere e herea noa ki te tono taputapu taketake; engari, kei te akiaki i tētahi ngaru whakapai ake i roto i te rāngai taputapu hiko.
I te taha o te whakaurunga nui o ngā taputapu whakahou, kei te piki haere te hiahia mō ngā taputapu atamai, whai hua. Ko ngā taputapu tuku hiko tika teitei-ngaohiko (HVDC), e whakaoti ana i te raruraru o te tuku hiko mamao, iti te ngaronga o te pūngao whakahou, kua kite i te tere tipu o te mākete o te ao neke atu i te 25% i te tau 2026. I taua wā, ko ngā inverters atamai me ngā āheinga whakahaere hono-pūnaha me ngā mahi taurite rokiroki pūngao kua noho hei whirihoranga paerewa mō ngā kaupapa hou o te rā me te hau. He mea nui, ko te kaweake o ngā taputapu tuku hiko UHV me te DC ngāwari a Haina i piki ake i te 81.5% i ia tau i roto i ngā marama tuatahi e rua o te tau 2026, koia te kaiārahi i te mekameka tuku taputapu teitei o te ao.
2. Kei te piki tonu te tono, kua noho te manawanui o te mekameka tuku hei whakataetae matua
Kei te mau tonu te kaha o te tipu o te hiahia hiko o te ao, e 3.7% te pikinga i te tau 2026—tata ki te 2.5 ngā wā o te tere tipu o te hiahia pūngao whānui—e peia ana e te hiko ahumahi, te whakawhānui ake i ngā pokapū raraunga AI, te urunga ki ngā EV me te pikinga ake o ngā kawenga whakamatao i te raumati. Ko ngā ōhanga whakawhanake tonu te miihini matua o te tipu, e tata ana ki te 80% o te hiahia hiko hou o te ao i te tau 2030, i te mea kei te kite hoki ngā ōhanga whakawhanake i te whakaoranga o te whakamahinga hiko, me te AI me te hangahanga teitei hei kaiārahi tipu hou.
Nā te pikinga tonu o te tono kua whakawhāiti ake te tuku o ngā wāhanga nui. Kei te iti tonu te tuku o ngā whakawhiti hiko, ngā taputapu whakawhiti hiko me ngā taura hiko-teitei, ā, ka roa te wā tuku mō ētahi hua matua ki te 8-12 marama. Kei te whakanui ake ngā kaihanga i te kaha whakaputa, engari kei te pāngia rātou e ngā arai mai i te piki me te heke o te utu o ngā rauemi mata—kua neke atu i te 20% te piki me te heke o ngā utu parahi me te konumohe i ia tau—me ngā raruraru o te kawe hiko i ētahi wā. Hei whakatika i tēnei, he maha ngā umanga kei te whakateretere i te whakatakotoranga kanorau "China+N", me te neke i tētahi wāhanga o te kaha whakaputa ki te Tonga-mā-rāwhiti o Āhia me te whakakotahi i te mekameka tuku matua i Haina, hei whakarei ake i te manawanui ki ngā mōrearea ā-whenua me te mākete. Ko te uara o te mākete taputapu tuku me te tohatoha hiko o te ao he USD 142.8 piriona i te tau 2026, ko ngā whakawhiti hiko he 38.2% o te wahanga mākete, e whakaatu ana i te tūranga matua o ngā wāhanga matua i roto i te umanga.
3. Kua Pakeke te Rokiroki Pūhiko i te taha Arumoni, ka Noho hei Pou Matua o te Ngāwari o te Whatunga
Nā te hekenga tonu o ngā utu rokiroki pākahiko kua tere ake te whakaurunga ki te pūnaha hiko. Whai muri i te hekenga 27% i ia tau i te tau 2025, kua pumau ngā utu rokiroki pākahiko e whā hāora ki te $78-80/MWh i te tau 2026, me ngā utu mōkihi pākahiko tauine-ratonga e tata ana ki te $80/kWh—tata ki te 50% te iti iho i te tau 2023. Nā tēnei painga utu kua whakataetae ngā pūnaha rokiroki pūngao pākahiko (BESS) ki ngā tipu hau peaker i roto i te maha o ngā mākete, e akiaki ana i ngā tāpiringa kaha rokiroki-rā o te ao kia mau tonu ai te tere tipu teitei.
Haunga ngā hekenga utu, kei te whakawhānui ake ngā whanaketanga hangarau i ngā āhuatanga tono mō te rokiroki pākahiko. Kua whānuitia te whakamahi i te hangarau pākahiko lithium rino phosphate (LFP), e whakapai ake ana i te kiato pūngao me te whai huatanga o te whakaurunga pūnaha. I taua wā, kei te tere tipu te tono mō ngā taputapu tautoko pēnei i ngā pūnaha whakahaere pākahiko (BMS), ngā mana whakahaere whatunga atamai me ngā taputapu whakahaere auau, nā te mea he mea nui ēnei ki te whakaoti i te wā poto me te taupatupatu o te whakaputanga pūngao hou. E tohu ana te IEA ko te rokiroki pākahiko, me ngā whakapainga whatunga, te mea matua ki te wetewete i te pūmanawa katoa o te pūngao hou, me te tumanako ka nui haere te kaha rokiroki o te ao hei tautoko i te whāinga pūngao iti-tukunga 50% i te tau 2030.
4. Ka rerekē ngā whanaketanga ā-rohe, ka mau tonu te hiranga o ngā kaihoko o Āhia ki tāwāhi
E whakaatu ana te mākete taputapu hiko o te ao i te rerekētanga ā-rohe motuhake i te tau 2026. Ko Āhia tonu te pūtake o te tuku me te tono o te ao: i piki ake te kaweake taputapu whatunga hiko a Haina mā te 32.7% i ia tau i roto i ngā marama tuatahi e rua, me te kaha o te tono mō ngā wāhanga ngaohiko iti me ngā whakawhiti tohatoha i te Middle East, Amerika Te Raki me Ūropi. I piki ake hoki te kaweake mīhini hiko a Hapani mā te 11.3% i ia tau, nā ngā taputapu e pā ana ki te haurua-ira, me ngā tuku kaha ki ngā whenua o Āhia ki te Tonga-Rawhiti pērā i a Taiwan, Mareia me Vietnam.
I Ūropi me Amerika Te Raki, ko te whakahoutanga o te whatunga hiko me te whakatinanatanga o te pūngao hou ngā tino take o te tono taputapu. Nā te mahere "Fit for 55" a te EU i tere ake te whakamutu i te hiko waro, e whakanui ana i te tono mō ngā taputapu whatunga atamai me ngā pūnaha rokiroki pūngao. Ka whai hua te US i te Whiwhinga Taake Pūtea (ITC) me ngā kaupapa here e pā ana, e ārahi ana i te whakatinanatanga o te rokiroki pākahiko o te ao, engari e anga atu ana ki ngā utu taputapu teitei ake nā ngā ture ā-rohe me ngā here hokohoko. Kei te huri ngā mākete puta mai i te Tonga-mā-rāwhiti o Āhia me Āwherika hei pou tipu hou, me te pikinga ake o te tono mō ngā taputapu tuku me te tohatoha hiko taketake e akiakihia ana e te noho tāone me te hiko, engari he iti noa iho te haumi whatunga me te kaha hangarau.
5. Tirohanga Mō Te Wā Roa: Ko te Pūtea Whatunga me te Auahatanga Hangarau te Kaiārahi i te Tipu Tauwhiro
E matapaetia ana e te IEA ko te pūngao iti-tukunga—e arahina ana e ngā pūngao whakahou me te karihi—ka eke ki te 50% o te whakaputanga hiko o te ao i te tau 2030, he pikinga mai i te 42% i te tau 2025, e hiahia ana kia piki ake te haumi ā-tau o te whatunga hiko o te ao mā te 50% mai i te taumata $400 piriona o nāianei. Mā tēnei haumitanga nui ka puta he tono pumau mō ngā taputapu hiko whai hua, tutuki i ngā whakaritenga, me te atamai puta noa i ngā rāngai noho, arumoni me te ahumahi. Heoi, kei te anga whakamua hoki te umanga ki ngā wero: kei muri te hanganga whatunga hiko i te whanaketanga o ngā pūtake hiko, me te neke atu i te 250 GW o ngā kaupapa pūngao whakahou, rokiroki pūngao me ngā pokapū raraunga e tatari ana kia honoa ki te whatunga hiko o te ao.
I te tirohanga whakamua, ko te auahatanga hangarau te mea nui ki te wawahi i ngā arai. Ko te mamati, te mātauranga me te whakakao ka noho hei au matua o te whakapai ake i ngā taputapu—ka whānui ake te whakamahinga o ngā hangarau whatunga atamai, ngā māhanga mamati me ngā taputapu waro-kore. I taua wā, ko te tutuki i ngā paerewa whai hua o te pūngao o te ao me ngā ture tukunga waro ka noho hei whakaritenga mō te urunga ki te mākete, ka akiaki i ngā umanga ki te whakateretere i te huringa hanga matomato me te hanganga pūnaha kaute tapuwae waro.
Te Take Matua
He tau nui te tau 2026 mō te umanga taputapu hiko me te hiko o te ao: kua tae te whakawhiti pūngao whakahou ki tētahi wāhanga pakeke, kei te tere haere te whakahoutanga o te whatunga hiko, ā, kei te whānui haere te mākete, engari ko te manawanui o te mekameka tuku, te whakahoutanga hangarau me te tutuki i ngā ture kua noho hei wero matua. Mō ngā kaiwhakarato taputapu, ko te hopu i ngā whai wāhitanga e puta mai ana i te whakaurunga pūngao whakahou, te whakapai ake i te whatunga hiko me te hokohoko rokiroki pākahiko, me te whakarei ake i te ngāwari o te mekameka tuku me ngā āheinga auaha hangarau, ka waiho hei kaupapa matua mō te hopu i te hea mākete. Kei te anga whakamua te umanga ki tētahi heke mai whai hua ake, atamai ake, me te pumau ake, me te kaha tipu roa e tautokona ana e ngā whāinga whakawhiti pūngao o te ao.
Wā tuku: Maehe-19-2026
