Kei te uru te umanga taputapu hiko me te hiko o te ao ki tētahi wāhanga nui o te huringa i te tau 2026. Ko te whakawhiti i te pūngao whakahou me te whakahoutanga o te whatunga hiko kei te akiaki i ngā panonitanga hanganga nui. Ka whai hua te rāngai mai i te tipu kaha, i whakakahangia e te tango pūngao ma me te pikinga o te tono hiko. Heoi, kei te anga atu hoki ki ngā wero e piki haere ana, tae atu ki ngā here mekameka tuku, ngā whakatikatika ture, me te huringa hangarau tere. Mā te whakamahi i te Pūrongo Hiko IEA 2026 hou, ngā raraunga tikanga ā-ao, me ngā putanga hou o te umanga, ka tūhuratia e tēnei pūrongo ngā au matua, ngā wero matua, me ngā ahunga whakamua mō te umanga i tēnei tau.
Ka Whakakaha te Mana Whakahou, ka Whakaoho i ngā Whakapai Ake i ngā Taputapu Tino Pai
He tau hītori te tau 2026 mō te ranunga hiko o te ao: kua hipa kē te waro i te pūtake hiko nui rawa atu o te ao, ā, kua mutu te mana o te waro mō te tata ki te rau tau, e ai ki te IEA. Inaianei, e tata ana ki te 20% o te whakaputa hiko o te ao te pūngao hiko rā me te hau. Ko te pūngao hiko rā te wāhanga tino tere te tipu, ā, i te tau 2025 ka eke ki te 620 TWh te whakaputanga ā-tau—he pikinga tere atu i te 450 TWh i te tau 2024. E matapaetia ana ka hipa ake i te hau, te karihi, me te wai i ngā wā tata nei.
Ko tēnei tere o te horapa o te hiko whakahou kei te akiaki i ngā whakapainga i roto i te rāngai taputapu hiko, e neke atu ana i te tono taketake ki ngā otinga tino whai hua, atamai. Ka whakatauhia e ngā taputapu tuku hiko tika teitei-ngaohiko (HVDC) ngā hiahia tuku hiko tawhiti-roa, iti-ngaronga o te pūngao whakahou. I tipu ake tana mākete o te ao neke atu i te 25% i te tau 2026. Ko ngā inverters atamai—me te ture hono-whatunga me te taurite rokiroki pūngao—kua waiho hei paerewa mō ngā kaupapa hou o te rā me te hau. He mea nui, ko te kaweake o ngā taputapu tuku hiko UHV me te DC ngāwari a Haina i piki ake i te 81.5% i ia tau i roto i ngā marama tuatahi e rua o te tau 2026, koia te kaiārahi i te mekameka tuku kounga teitei o te ao.
Ko te pikinga tonu o te tono e aro nui ana ki te pakari o te mekameka tuku
Kei te tino tipu haere te hiahia hiko o te ao, e 3.7% te pikinga i te tau 2026—tata ki te 2.5 ngā wā o te tere tipu whānui o te hiahia pūngao. E kī ana te IEA ko te whakapūngao hiko ā-umanga, te whakawhānui ake i ngā pokapū raraunga AI, te pikinga ake o te urunga mai o ngā EV, me ngā kawenga whakamatao raumati teitei ake hei ngā take matua. Ka tata ki te 80% o te hiahia hiko hou o te ao ka takohahia e ngā ōhanga whakawhanake i te tau 2030. Kei te kite hoki ngā ōhanga whakawhanake i te whakamahinga hiko e ora ake ana, me te AI me te hangahanga teitei hei miihini tipu hou.
Nā te tono tonu nei kua whakawhāitihia ngā tuku o ngā wāhanga nui. Kei te iti tonu te tuku o ngā whakawhiti hiko, ngā taputapu whakawhiti hiko, me ngā taura hiko-teitei, ā, ka roa te wā arahi mō ētahi hua matua ki te 8-12 marama. Kei te whakanui ake ngā kaihanga i te kaha engari kei te pāngia e ngā arai: ka piki haere ngā utu parahi me te konumohe neke atu i te 20% ia tau, ā, ka puta he raruraru i ētahi wā. Hei urutau, he maha ngā kamupene kei te whakateretere i te whakatakotoranga kanorau "China+N". Kei te nekehia e rātou ētahi o ngā mahi whakaputa ki Āhia ki te Tonga-Rawhiti, me te whakapakari i te mekameka tuku matua o Haina hei whakaiti i ngā mōrearea ā-rohe me te mākete. Ko te uara o te mākete taputapu tuku me te tohatoha hiko o te ao i te tau 2026 he USD 142.8 piriona, ko ngā whakawhiti hiko te 38.2%—e whakaatu ana i tā rātou mahi matua.
He mea nui te kite, kua piki haere tonu ngā kaweake taputapu hiko o Haina mō ngā tau e toru karapīpiti. I eke ngā kaweake o te tau 2025 ki te tata ki te 374 piriona tāra US (tata ki te 2.6 trillion yuan), he pikinga 26% ia tau—10.4 ōrau teitei ake i te tau o mua. Ko ngā taputapu whakawhiti hiko te hunga e ārahi ana i te tipu, e hanga ana i te tata ki te 41% o ngā kaweake katoa. E hangai ana tēnei nekehanga ki te kaupapa here e toru tau a Haina ki te whakaū i te rāngai, me te whai kia 6% te tipu moni whiwhi ā-tau mō ngā taputapu hiko tuku iho i te tau 2026.
Kua Pakeke te Hokohoko Rokiroki Pūhiko, Kua Whakakahangia te Ngāwari o te Whatunga
Nā te hekenga o ngā utu rokiroki pākahiko kua tere ake te whakaurunga ki ngā pūnaha hiko. Whai muri i te hekenga 27% i ia tau i te tau 2025, kua pumau ngā utu rokiroki whā hāora ki te $78-80/MWh i te tau 2026. Tata ki te $80/kWh ngā utu mō ngā kete pākahiko tauine-ratonga—tata ki te 50% te iti iho i te tau 2023. Nā tēnei painga utu ka whakataetae ngā pūnaha rokiroki pūngao pākahiko (BESS) ki ngā tipu hau nui i roto i te maha o ngā mākete, ka akiaki i te tipu kaha o te kaha rokiroki-rā o te ao.
Kei te whakawhānui ake ngā whanaketanga hangarau i ngā whakamahinga rokiroki pākahiko. E whānuitia ana te whakamahi i ngā pākahiko lithium rino phosphate (LFP), e whakanui ana i te kiato pūngao me te pai o te whakaurunga. Kei te piki haere hoki te hiahia mō ngā taputapu tautoko: ngā pūnaha whakahaere pākahiko (BMS), ngā mana whakahaere whatunga atamai, me ngā taputapu whakahaere auau. He mea nui ēnei hei whakatika i te wā poto me te hāereere o te pūngao whakahou. I te tau 2026, kei te tere haere hoki te hangarau pākahiko rere wai, me ngā putanga hou i roto i ngā rauemi hiko me ngā tauira hiko e whakaiti ana i ngā utu me te whakapai ake i te pumau—e tautoko ana i te rokiroki roa mō te whakaurunga whakahou nui. E whakanui ana te IEA ko te rokiroki pākahiko, me ngā whakapainga whatunga, ka whakatuwhera i te pūmanawa katoa o ngā pūngao whakahou, me te kaha rokiroki o te ao ka nui haere kia tutuki ai te whāinga pūngao iti-tukunga 50% o te tau 2030.
Ka rerekē ngā whanaketanga ā-rohe, me ngā kaihokohoko Āhia e ārahi ana i te ara
E whakaatu ana te mākete taputapu hiko o te ao i ngā rerekētanga ā-rohe mārama. Ko Āhia tonu te pūtake o te tuku me te tono: i piki ake te kaweake taputapu whatunga hiko a Haina mā te 32.7% i ia tau i roto i ngā marama tuatahi e rua. He nui te tono a te Middle East, Amerika Te Raki, me Ūropi mō ngā wāhanga ngaohiko iti me ngā whakawhiti tohatoha. I piki ake te kaweake mīhini hiko a Hapani mā te 11.3% i ia tau, nā ngā taputapu e pā ana ki te haurua-ira, me ngā tuku kaha ki te Tonga-Rawhiti o Āhia (Mareia, Vietnam).
I Ūropi, kei te tere ake te whakakorenga o te hiko waro i roto i te mahere "Fit for 55" a te EU, e whakanui ana i te hiahia mō ngā taputapu whatunga atamai me te rokiroki hiko. Ko te mākete EV o te rohe hoki te mea e akiaki ana i te hiahia: e 9 ngā whenua Ūropi i hoko i te 207,000 ngā waka hiko hou i te marama o Hānuere 2026, he pikinga 23.1% ia tau, me te reiti urunga 29.5%. Kua whakawhānuihia, kua whakanuia rānei e Tiamana, Wīwī, Itari, me Pāniora ngā tautoko EV, e whakanui ake ana i te hiahia mō ngā hanganga utu me ngā taputapu hiko tautoko.
I Amerika Te Raki, ko te US te kaiārahi o te whakatinanatanga o te rokiroki pākahiko o te ao nā te Whiwhinga Taake Pūtea (ITC). Heoi, ko ngā whakahau ā-rohe me ngā here tauhokohoko ka piki ake ngā utu taputapu. E toru ngā kaiwhakahaere whatunga rohe nui o Amerika kua whakaaetia kia $75 piriona te whakawhānui i te tuku hiko. Ka hangaia e rātou ngā raina ngaohiko tino teitei 765kV, ka whānui ki te 10,000 maero—e whā ngā wā o te kaha o nāianei. Ka aro atu tēnei ki ngā hanganga tawhito: 70% o ngā whakawhiti hiko me ngā raina tuku hiko neke atu i te 25 tau te pakeke, ā, 60% o ngā kaiwawao hiko neke atu i te 30 tau. I taua wā, ko te pikinga o te whakamahinga hiko o ngā pokapū raraunga AI—e matapaetia ana ka eke ki te 6.7%-12.0% o te hiko o Amerika i te tau 2028—kei te akiaki i ngā whakapainga whatunga me te tono taputapu, me te 800VDC me te whakamatao wai e puta ake ana hei hangarau matua.
He pou tipu hou ngā mākete hou o Āhia ki te Tonga-mā-rāwhiti me Āwherika. Ko te noho tāone me te hiko te mea e akiaki ana i te hiahia mō ngā taputapu tuku me te tohatoha taketake. Heoi, ko te korenga o te haumi whatunga me te kaha hangarau e aukati ana i te tipu.
Tirohanga Mō Te Wā Roa: Te Pūtea me te Auahatanga Whatunga e Ārahi Ana i te Tipu Tauwhiro
E matapaetia ana e te IEA ka eke te kaha iti-tukunga—e arahina ana e ngā pūngao whakahou me te karihi—ki te 50% o te whakaputanga hiko o te ao i te tau 2030, he pikinga mai i te 42% i te tau 2025. E hiahiatia ana he pikinga 50% o te haumitanga whatunga ā-tau o te ao mō tēnei, mai i te $400 piriona o nāianei. Ka waihangahia he tono pumau mō ngā taputapu hiko whai hua, tutuki i ngā whakaritenga, me te atamai puta noa i ngā rāngai noho, arumoni, me te ahumahi. Kei te mau tonu tētahi wero nui: kei muri te hanganga whatunga i te whanaketanga o ngā pūtake hiko, me te neke atu i te 250 GW o ngā kaupapa whakahou, rokiroki pūngao, me ngā pokapū raraunga e tatari ana kia hono atu ki te ao katoa.
Ko te auahatanga hangarau te mea nui hei whakakore i ngā arai. Ko te mamati, te mātauranga, me te whakakao ngā ia o ngā whakahoutanga taputapu. Ka whānuitia te whakamahinga o ngā hangarau whatunga atamai, ngā māhanga mamati, me ngā taputapu waro-kore. Ka noho hoki te whakatutukitanga i ngā paerewa whai huatanga pūngao o te ao me ngā paerewa tukunga waro hei whakaritenga urunga ki te mākete. Ka akiakihia ngā kamupene e tēnei ki te whakateretere i te hanga matomato me te hanga pūnaha kaute tapuwae waro. Ko te tautoko kaupapa here a Haina—tae atu ki te ahumahi me te whakawhānui ake i te mākete—e tautoko ana hoki i te tipu o te ahumahi o te ao.
Te Take Matua
He tau nui te tau 2026 mō te umanga taputapu hiko me te hiko o te ao. Kua pakari te whakawhiti ki ngā mea hou, kei te tere haere te whakahounga o te whatunga hiko, ā, kei te whānui haere tonu te mākete. Heoi, ko te manawanui o te mekameka tuku, te whakahoutanga hangarau, me te tutuki i ngā ture he wero nui. Mō ngā kaiwhakarato taputapu, ko te angitu kei te hopu i ngā whai wāhitanga mai i te whakaurunga ki ngā mea hou, ngā whakapainga whatunga hiko, me te hokohoko rokiroki pākahiko - me te whakanui ake i te ngāwari me te auahatanga o te mekameka tuku. Kei te anga whakamua te umanga ki tētahi heke mai whai hua ake, atamai ake, me te pumau ake, e tautokona ana e ngā whāinga whakawhiti pūngao o te ao.
Puna: Pūrongo IEA Electricity 2026, Ngā Tatauranga Hokohoko Tikanga o te Ao, Rangahau Ahumahi, me ngā Whakahōutanga Mākete Hou (Maehe 2026); Te Manatū Ahumahi me te Hangarau Mōhiohio o Haina; Ngā Whare Rangahau Ahumahi
Wā tuku: Maehe-24-2026
